UPCOMING ELECTION

I recently traveled with one of my friends and, unfortunately, he turned to politics as a discussion topic.  I knew we had different political views so I had hoped we could avoid this topic on our trip but no such luck.

Our conversation confirmed my dissolution with our political system.  My friend does absolutely no research of the issues and simply believes the sound bites he hears on TV. My friend believes in simple problems to a complex world. 

As an example, one of his grandsons is looking for a high paying manufacturing job. His grandson is 19, has a high school education, and has no meaningful work experience. My friend was lamenting the lack of high paying jobs for people with a minimal education and no experience. He referenced a large, local employer whose employment is down substantially from its peak in the 1960s.

He said that this employer has "shipped all those jobs overseas."  What's interesting is that I know a fair amount about this employer because they were a former client.  Their production levels are actually higher than they were in the 1960s and they don't hire as many unskilled workers because of the use of robotics in their manufacturing process.

My friend further said that another problem is foreign workers producing goods at lower costs than US workers.  He said we need to implement tariffs on all foreign produced goods.  After a discussion of the effect of tariffs on international trade, US consumers, and the probable response of other countries to tariffs, he remained committed to protecting the salaries of US workers through the use of tariffs.

To summarize, I remain skeptical that we can find common ground among our political parties to fix our country's problems when people, like my friend, don't really think seriously about problems and propose quick fixes.

THE ROAD AHEAD?

About 30 years ago, my wife and I began traveling to other countries. We saw people living in very poor conditions: one-room homes made of sticks and sheet metal, dirt floors, no running water, no sanitary facilities, and most people had inadequate food for their family.  I said to my wife " The greatest challenge the US will encounter in the years ahead is how can we raise the standard of living of the people around the world without decreasing our standard of living?  If we don't raise their standard of living, we are going to be constantly engaged in economic conflict or armed conflict."

Unfortunately, we have not been able to significantly raise the worldwide standard of living for many people and we are now seeing the results of our failure to do so:

1.    An increase in illegal immigration to the US;

2.    Increased economic competition from China, India, Indonesia, Europe, and other countries;

3.    Armed conflict in Afghanistan and "dicey" relationships with Iran and North Korea; and

4.    A significant increase in terrorist activities around the world.

I wonder what conditions will be like 30 years from now for my children and grandchildren?

I'm not sure that politicians, the public, or anyone has the solution as to how to increase worldwide prosperity.

I am not a socialist.  I  am a firm believer in the capitalist system. But, it seems to me that it is inevitable that the more prosperous nations (and the US in particular) will have to reduce the standard of living for their citizens if the standard of living for citizens of other countries is to improve.

If my hypothesis is correct that the standard of living for the citizens of the prosperous nations must decline, those nations have a tremendous communications problem confronting them. How do they convince their citizens to sacrifice for the greater good?

How will we:

1.    Convince US workers and the workers in the developed countries that they must accept lower wages to match those of workers with comparable skills and knowledge in China, India, Mexico, Brazil, etc?

2.    Convince our citizens to reduce their consumption of the world's limited resources (oil, food, etc) so that people in other nations can increase their consumption?

3.    Convince the citizens of the "third world" countries that they have to engage in population control if they hope to feed their citizens?

It will be interesting to see what the road ahead is like.

2012 Predictions

As we prepare to enter 2012, I offer my fearless predictions:

1. The world will not come to an end in 2012.
2. Romney will be the Republican nominee for President.
3. Obama will be reelected as President.
4. Republicans will not win a majority in the Senate but will continue to control the House.
5. The Supreme Court will rule in favor of Obamacare.
6. The economy will not improve significantly as Congress will not make the tough decisions necessary to solve our debt problems.
7. European debt problems will continue--politicians in Europe don't have any guts either.
8.  The protests of 2011 will continue into 2012 and will be expanded.
9. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, will be flat or slightly negative for 2012.
10. Iran will develop a nuclear weapon and we will impose more sanctions but do nothing else.
11. We will still be involved in the war in Afghanistan.
12. Gas will cost over $4 per gallon as we will not have expanded our domestic consumption due to environmental concerns.

It will be interesting to view these predictions a year from now.  Of course, if I'm wrong on prediction #1, none of the other predictions will matter. The Walrus

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH OUR NATION?

After the failure of Congress to pass the payroll tax extension, I read several articles written about the current gridlock in Washington.  I also took the time to read several of the comments written by readers about the articles.

I was struck by the hatred that was expressed in the comments.  In my opinion, we are a seriously divided Nation, the most divided I have seen in my lifetime.  Democrats hate Republicans and vice versa.  How did this happen?  We have serious problems facing our Nation and we cannot create a national consensus on anything.

Can our political leaders ever work together? Or, are they so wedded to their ideology that compromise is impossible?